United States corn production up, soybean down from October
12 November, 2017, 02:40 | Author: Sheri Evans
Total exports of soy oilmeal in the first seven months of the fiscal started April is nearly 5 times higher to 5.37 lakh tons compared to 1.07 lakh tons past year. US soybean tumbled on Thursday after USDA projected a record - large 2017 USA crop and unexpectedly left its average yield forecas t unchanged in a monthly report. That left USA ending stocks down slightly, from 430 million bushels to 425 million bushels. USDA moved the yields much further, however, to a bullish estimate of 175.4 bpa.
USDA has estimated not only larger production, but also increased feed and residual use, along with more exports, which were both raised by 75 million bushels. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the United States. China corn is cut 500,000 tons to 2.5 million. Larger U.S. and European production is partially offset by some reductions overseas, most notably in Ukraine, Russia and Vietnam.
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"The idea is that if corn yields can be so high, the USDA might increase soybean yields in its next report".
USDA did not revise the average farm price range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel. As I've said for many many weeks, I don't believe the low is yet in place.
The U.S.D.A. 2018 wheat carryover forecast was below the pre-report trade average expectation of 956 million bus, the soybean carryover was slightly above the trade average of 420 million bus and the U.S.D.A. corn carryover was well above the trade average of 2,360 million bus. This pushed up in advance the soybean prices while dragging down the corn futures earlier this week. "USDA also increased its forecast of Brazilian production, though it's still too early to be making real judgements there".
Still, the January soybean contracts are above the 200-day, 100-day and 50-day moving averages, which will provide support to the market. It might take years for world wheat stocks to decrease significantly. Durum carryover was raised 1 million bus to 28 million bus based on a like increase in supply.
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